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Jakob Madsen (Monash University)

26SEP 2017

/ Research Seminars

dalle 14:00 alle 15:15 - Seminar Room, Piazza Scaravilli 2, Department of Economics

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Title: Back to the Past: Is Growth Reverting to Pre-Industrial Levels?

Abstract. In his influential book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon (2016) forwards the thesis that the US and, presumably, the rest of the West is entering a low growth regime and that the growth experienced over the two centuries has been a one-time-only event. However, the growth predictions for the 21st century have been complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the factors that have driven growth since 1820 and, therefore, which growth drivers have played out their roles. Constructing an extensive macroeconomic panel data set for 19 OECD countries spanning 200 years this paper estimates the approximate determinants of growth since 1820, and simulates growth over the 21st century. The focus will be on secular transitions in great ratios such as fertility, structural changes, investment, age dependency, labor market participation rates, mortality, the innovative activity, education, government policies, and hours worked.