Defended Doctoral Researches

PhD Candidate: Sahar Paktinat (DSE – 38th cycle)
Supervisor: Rossella Verzulli (DSE); co-supervisor: Cristina Ugolini (DSE)
PhD Scholarship Ex M.D. 352/2022 – co-financed by Rizzoli Orthopedic Institute, Bologna.

Abstract: Orthopaedics has become a focal point for modern health systems, driven by population ageing, rising demand for joint replacement, and growing quality-of-life expectations. This dissertation examines how organisational arrangements affect orthopaedic outcomes, comparing urgent hip fracture surgery with elective knee arthroplasty across Italian and Norwegian settings.
For emergency hip fractures in Emilia-Romagna, higher surgical volumes are found to causally reduce 30-day mortality, supporting minimum-volume standards as a policy instrument. For elective knee arthroplasty in the same region, no systematic differences in long-term prosthesis survival are found between public and accredited private hospitals, suggesting that outsourcing routine procedures can relieve public sector pressures without compromising quality. Turning to Norway, hospital volume shows no robust effect on clinical or labour market outcomes following knee replacement. Taken together, the results suggest that organisational arrangements matter more for acute, unplanned procedures than for highly standardised elective interventions, where centralisation or ownership type confer little measurable benefit. For routine elective procedures, outcome variation across hospitals may instead reflect surgeon-level experience or organisational practices, warranting further investigation.

• Thesis Defence – March 27th, 2026

  [ .pdf 2680Kb ]

PhD Candidate: Nguyen Thanh Thanh Duong (STAT – 38th cycle)
Supervisor: Andrea Guizzardi (STAT); co-supervisor: Ida D'Attoma (STAT)
PhD Scholarship Ex M.D. 351/2022

Based on three quantitative studies, this thesis measures and forecasts the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on tourism demand in Italy.
The first paper estimates four augmented tourism demand functions with climatic variables for each season. It finds that both climate and economic factors, particularly GDP and exchange rates, are key determinants. The analysis highlights non-linear effects of climate, suggesting its influence may surpass economic factors if warming continues. It concludes that public governance and operators must address climate impacts now, recommending product innovation and a remodeling of supply into new high and low seasons to maintain the industry's high added value.
The second paper investigates long-term climate change impacts on Italian tourism demand up to 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Winter tourism is projected to decline initially but may recover through product diversification, while spring is forecasted to benefit consistently. These findings project climate change as a structural driver reshaping seasonality, potentially reducing the summer peak. The study integrates physical climate variables into econometric forecasting, offering policy-relevant insights for enhancing sector resilience and sustainability.
Using daily data, the third paper examines the impact of the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods on tourism. While Rimini suffered the largest absolute losses, smaller provinces like Ravenna experienced steeper relative declines, revealing greater vulnerability. Projections show short-duration heavy rainfall likelihood increases significantly with warming. This analysis quantifies climate-related economic risk, highlighting adaptation value for vulnerable tourism destinations.
This thesis's primary contribution is directly integrating raw physical climate data from state-of-the-art sources like ERA5 and EURO-CORDEX into econometric models, paving a new way for studies in this field. Policy implications are significant, offering evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies, highlight mitigation urgency, and enhance long-term resilience of the Italian tourism economy and wider community.

• Thesis Defence – March 27th, 2026

  [ .pptx 3927Kb ]