Foodborne disease outbreaks are coupled with livestock market dynamics

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) monitor trends in foodborne bacterial disease outbreaks by compiling “Annual Summaries of Foodborne Outbreaks” (1966-2015).  Annual summaries include total outbreaks, cases, and (sporadically reported) deaths attributed to various food vehicles and specific bacterial agents.  The seminar will present research applying cutting-edge empirical methods to determine whether volatile outbreak data conceal systematic behavioral patterns through time that can be used to quantify causal interactions among food vehicles and bacterial agents.  The research sheds light on which foods are chiefly responsible for outbreaks by particular bacterial agents, and thus might serve as policy targets. Furthermore, since foodborne outbreaks are transmitted by food supply chains, the research tests for the first time whether outbreaks interact with market drivers including meat supply, meat prices, and conventional industry profitability measures.  The research examines whether these market drivers are sensitive to outbreaks; and consequently, the extent to which the market might provide a private regulatory alternative to sluggish public policy.